# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
"""Example using OneWayMixed


Created on Sat Dec 03 10:15:55 2011

Author: Josef Perktold

This example constructs a linear model with individual specific random
effects, and uses OneWayMixed to estimate it.

This is a variation on ex_mixed_lls_0.py. Here we only have a single
individual specific constant, that is just a random effect without exogenous
regressors.

"""

import numpy as np

from statsmodels.sandbox.panel.mixed import OneWayMixed, Unit

examples = ['ex1']

if 'ex1' in examples:
    #np.random.seed(54321)
    np.random.seed(978326)
    nsubj = 2000
    units  = []

    nobs_i = 4 #number of observations per unit, changed below

    nx = 0  #number fixed effects
    nz = 1 ##number random effects
    beta = np.ones(nx)
    gamma = 0.5 * np.ones(nz)   #mean of random effect
    gamma[0] = 0
    gamma_re_true = []
    for i in range(nsubj):
        #create data for one unit

        #random effect/coefficient
        gamma_re = gamma + 0.2 * np.random.standard_normal(nz)
        #store true parameter for checking
        gamma_re_true.append(gamma_re)

        #for testing unbalanced case, let's change nobs per unit
        if i > nsubj//4:
            nobs_i = 6

        #generate exogenous variables
        X = np.random.standard_normal((nobs_i, nx))
        Z = np.random.standard_normal((nobs_i, nz-1))
        Z = np.column_stack((np.ones(nobs_i), Z))

        noise = 0.1 * np.random.randn(nobs_i) #sig_e = 0.1

        #generate endogenous variable
        Y = np.dot(X, beta) + np.dot(Z, gamma_re) + noise

        #add random effect design matrix also to fixed effects to
        #capture the mean
        #this seems to be necessary to force mean of RE to zero !?
        #(It's not required for estimation but interpretation of random
        #effects covariance matrix changes - still need to check details.
        X = np.hstack((X,Z))

        #create units and append to list
        unit = Unit(Y, X, Z)
        units.append(unit)


    m = OneWayMixed(units)

    import time
    t0 = time.time()
    m.initialize()
    res = m.fit(maxiter=100, rtol=1.0e-5, params_rtol=1e-6, params_atol=1e-6)
    t1 = time.time()
    print 'time for initialize and fit', t1-t0
    print 'number of iterations', m.iterations
    #print dir(m)
    #print vars(m)
    print '\nestimates for fixed effects'
    print m.a
    print m.params
    bfixed_cov = m.cov_fixed()
    print 'beta fixed standard errors'
    print np.sqrt(np.diag(bfixed_cov))

    print m.bse
    b_re = m.params_random_units
    print 'RE mean:', b_re.mean(0)
    print 'RE columns std', b_re.std(0)
    print 'np.cov(b_re, rowvar=0), sample statistic'
    print np.cov(b_re, rowvar=0)
    print 'std of above'
    #need atleast_1d or diag raises exception
    print np.sqrt(np.diag(np.atleast_1d(np.cov(b_re, rowvar=0))))
    print 'm.cov_random()'
    print m.cov_random()
    print 'std of above'
    print res.std_random()
    print np.sqrt(np.diag(m.cov_random()))

    print '\n(non)convergence of llf'
    print m.history['llf'][-4:]
    print 'convergence of parameters'
    #print np.diff(np.vstack(m.history[-4:])[:,1:],axis=0)
    print np.diff(np.vstack(m.history['params'][-4:]),axis=0)
    print 'convergence of D'
    print np.diff(np.array(m.history['D'][-4:]), axis=0)

    #zdotb = np.array([np.dot(unit.Z, unit.b) for unit in m.units])
    zb = np.array([(unit.Z * unit.b[None,:]).sum(0) for unit in m.units])
    '''if Z is not included in X:
    >>> np.dot(b_re.T, b_re)/100
    array([[ 0.03270611, -0.00916051],
           [-0.00916051,  0.26432783]])
    >>> m.cov_random()
    array([[ 0.0348722 , -0.00909159],
           [-0.00909159,  0.26846254]])
    >>> #note cov_random doesn't subtract mean!
    '''
    print '\nchecking the random effects distribution and prediction'
    gamma_re_true = np.array(gamma_re_true)
    print 'mean of random effect true', gamma_re_true.mean(0)
    print 'mean from fixed effects   ', m.params[-2:]
    print 'mean of estimated RE      ', b_re.mean(0)

    print
    absmean_true = np.abs(gamma_re_true).mean(0)
    mape = ((m.params[-2:] + b_re) / gamma_re_true - 1).mean(0)*100
    mean_abs_perc = np.abs((m.params[-2:] + b_re) - gamma_re_true).mean(0) \
                       / absmean_true*100
    median_abs_perc = np.median(np.abs((m.params[-2:] + b_re) - gamma_re_true), 0) \
                         / absmean_true*100
    rmse_perc = ((m.params[-2:] + b_re) - gamma_re_true).std(0) \
                  / absmean_true*100
    print 'mape           ', mape
    print 'mean_abs_perc  ', mean_abs_perc
    print 'median_abs_perc', median_abs_perc
    print 'rmse_perc (std)', rmse_perc
    from numpy.testing import assert_almost_equal
    #assert is for n_units=100 in original example
    #I changed random number generation, so this won't work anymore
    #assert_almost_equal(rmse_perc, [ 34.14783884,  11.6031684 ], decimal=8)

    #now returns res
    print 'llf', res.llf  #based on MLE, does not include constant
    print 'tvalues', res.tvalues
    print 'pvalues', res.pvalues
    print res.t_test([1])
    print 'test mean of both random effects variables is zero'
    print res.f_test([[1]])
    plots = res.plot_random_univariate(bins=50)
    #fig = res.plot_scatter_pairs(0, 1) #no pairs
    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

    plt.show()
