Scottish Economic Bulletin |

### The Scottish Economy

Gross Domestic Product

Provisional estimates of GDP (income measure) for each UK Government Office Region/country are now available for 1996 with the publication of the Regional Accounts.7 Estimates for 1995 were also made available at county/former Scottish region level.

Scottish GDP in 1996 was £54.43 billion, 8.6 per cent of UK GDP. GDP per head was £10,614, 99.1 per cent of the UK average. This was the fourth highest of the 12 UK Government Office Regions/countries - below only London, South East and Eastern - for the fifth successive year.

GDP per head in Scotland relative to the UK increased strongly between 1989 and 1992, reflecting the stronger performance of the Scottish economy in the 1990-1992 UK recession. Since 1992, GDP per head has fluctuated around 99 per cent of UK GDP per head, reaching a peak of 100.2 per cent in 1995.

Table 2 shows GDP per head in the former Scottish regions in 1995.8 It is instructive to look at trends and, accordingly, Table 2 also provides data for 1989. GDP per head was well above the UK average in both Grampian (133 per cent) and Lothian (124 per cent) in 1995. Although Grampian showed the smallest increase in GDP per head over the 1993-1995 period (and fell slightly relative to the UK), the level of GDP per head was third only to London and Berkshire across the UK, followed by Lothian. All other Scottish regions were below the UK average and GDP per head in the Highlands and Islands and in Fife was amongst the lowest in the UK.

Table 2: GDP in the Scottish Regions, 1989 and 1995

| GDP per head 1995 (£) | GDP per head, 1990=100
1989 | 1995
Borders | 9,003 | 80.1 | 88.3
Central | 9,265 | 89.1 | 90.8
Dumfries and Galloway | 9,555 | 86.4 | 93.7
Fife | 8,314 | 84.0 | 81.5
Grampian | 13,566 | 119.4 | 133.0
Highlands and Islands | 8,298 | 80.4 | 81.4
Lothian | 12,656 | 111.4 | 124.1
Strathclyde | 9,483 | 87.9 | 93.0
Tayside | 9,611 | 88.8 | 94.2
Scotland | 10,244 | 93.8 | 100.2
UK | 10,199 | 100.0 | 100.0

Source: Office for National Statistics

The improvement in Scottish GDP per head, relative to the UK, from 1989 has been evident across most Scottish regions. Lothian, Borders and Grampian have seen particularly marked improvements and only Fife had a lower relative level of GDP per head in 1995 than in 1989. Relative GDP per head in the Highlands and Islands has increased slightly but levels have fallen since the peak (of 88.8 per cent ) in 1991.

### Index of Production and Construction

The Scottish Office Education and Industry Department's quarterly Index of Production and Construction rose by 0.4 per cent in 1997 Q3. Excluding oil and gas, the Index rose by 0.5 per cent. At a broad sectoral level, output rose in manufacturing (0.9 per cent) and in electricity, gas and water supply (5.7 per cent), offset by falling output in construction (2.5 per cent) and mining and quarrying (1.8 per cent). The UK index (less oil and gas) rose by 0.7 per cent in 1997 Q3.

An indication of the underlying trend in industrial output is obtained by comparing the last 4 quarters for which data are available (to 1997 Q3) with the previous 4 quarters (to 1996 Q3). Excluding oil and gas, the Index rose by 6.0 per cent over this period, as increases were recorded in manufacturing (7.4 per cent), construction (1.8 per cent), electricity, gas and water supply (5.7 per cent) and mining and quarrying (3.3 per cent). By comparison, the UK Index (less oil and gas) rose by 2.0 per cent over the same period.

Since 1990, manufacturing output has increased by 25.6 per cent. Growth in UK manufacturing has been much more sluggish than in Scotland, growing by only 5.1 per cent over the same period. The influence of the electrical and instrument engineering sector (EIE) on Scottish manufacturing has been discussed in past editions of the Scottish Economic Bulletin and by outside commentators. Excluding EIE, manufacturing output in Scotland has declined by 7.7 per cent since 1990. UK manufacturing excluding EIE has increased by 1.8 per cent.

In the year to 1997 Q3, the EIE sector continued to grow strongly - by 18.4 per cent. However, growth was also evident in 6 of the other 10 manufacturing sectors over the period. This is the continuation of a trend over the last year in which growth in the manufacturing sector has become more broadly based. Indeed as Chart 3 shows, manufacturing output excluding EIE has been increasing year-on-year in each quarter since 1996 Q4, a trend not seen since 1990 Q3. In the year to 1997 Q3, manufacturing output excluding EIE grew by 1.4 per cent, only slightly below the 1.5 per cent growth in the UK as a whole.

CHART 3 HERE

Exports

The manufacturing sector accounts for most of Scotland's external trade with the rest of the world. Estimates from the 1994 Input-Output Tables99 indicate that around three quarters of trade is in manufacturing. The Scottish Council Development and Industry (SCDI) annual survey of Scottish Manufactured Exports for 1996 was published in December 1997. In current prices, the value of Scottish manufactured exports10 was estimated to have risen by 6.4 per cent in 1996 to £18.42 billion. This represents a slower rate of growth than in recent years (20.3 per cent in 1995 and 24.8 per cent in 1994) and can be compared with growth of 8.9 per cent in UK manufactured exports (to £155.18 billion) in 1996. For the first time since 1988, UK manufactured exports growth outpaced that of Scotland and Scotland's share of UK exports fell marginally from 12.1 per cent in 1995 to 11.9 per cent in 1996.

As shown in Table 3, four sectors - Office Machinery, Radio/TV/Communication Equipment, Whisky and Chemicals - continued to dominate Scottish manufactured exports in 1996, accounting for 75 per cent of the total. The electronics sector11 had a more mixed export performance in 1996 than in recent years. Exports grew by 6.9 per cent to £10.21 billion (55.5 per cent of total manufactured exports). This compares with growth of over 42 per cent in 1995. Exports from the Office Machinery sector - the largest exporting sector - rose by 14.3 per cent in 1996 to £6.83 billion (37.1 per cent of total manufactured exports). While this rate of growth was considerably lower than in 1995, the sector still contributed over 77 per cent to the total growth in manufactured exports in 1996. Exports from the other major element of Scotland's electronics industry - the Radio/TV/Communication Equipment sector - declined by 7.3 per cent to £3.00 billion.

Table 3: Top Exporting Sectors in Scotland, 1996

Sector (SIC92) | Value at current prices (£ million) | Per cent of Total | Nominal increase in value 1995-96: per cent | Contribution to total export growth: per cent
Office Machinery | 6,825.0 | 37.1 | 14.3 | 77.5
Radio, Television & Communication | 3,003.8 | 16.3 | -7.3 | -21.6
Equipment and Apparatus Whisky | 2,278.1 | 12.4 | 0.1 | 0.1
Chemicals and Chemical Products | 1,706.4 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 13.1
Machinery and Equipment nec | 802.2 | 4.4 | 18.4 | 11.4
Other Food Products & Beverages | 446.0 | 2.4 | -10.7 | -4.8
Fabricated Metal Products except Machinery and Equipment | 411.1 | 2.2 | 37.3 | 10.2
Pulp, Paper and Paper Products | 387.0 | 2.1 | -2.0 | -0.7
Coke, Refined Petroleum Products and Nuclear Fuel | 332.0 | 1.8 | 69.6 | 12.4
Other Transport Equipment | 326.8 | 1.8 | -22.4 | -8.6
Other sectors | 1,896.2 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 11.1
All Manufacturing Industries | 18,414.6 | 100.0 | 6.3 | 100.0

Source: Scottish Council Development and Industry

Note: 1. Under SIC 92 Whisky is normally incorporated in the Food Products & Beverages sector.

Exports from the whisky sector increased only marginally in 1996, up by 0.1 per cent to £2.28 billion (12.4 per cent of total manufactured exports). The Chemicals and Chemical Products sector experienced a further rise in exports in 1996, of 9.2 per cent to £1.71 billion (9.3 per cent of total manufactured exports). This follows growth of 9.0 per cent in 1995. An additional 19 industry sectors together represented 25 per cent of total manufactured exports in 1996. Export growth was recorded in 14 sectors.

Overall the latest figures record a positive - and better than expected - performance by Scottish manufacturing in export markets during 1996. The SCDI quarterly index based on a selected panel survey of large exporters had provisionally estimated a fall of 6.8 per cent in manufactured exports. The rapid growth rates of recent years have slowed but export levels in most sectors continue to rise. Initial estimates from the SCDI quarterly index for 1997 suggest further growth of 12.0 per cent to £20.61 billion.

Exports by Destination

As shown in Table 4, the EU remained Scotland's main trading area in 1996 with a 58 per cent share of Scotland's exports. However, exports grew more modestly - by 2.9 per cent - in 1996. Six of the top ten individual country markets were in the EU, the others being the USA, Japan, Switzerland and Norway. The latest survey results confirm France as Scotland's largest export market for the fourth successive year, despite a drop in the actual value of exports of 5.4 per cent to £2.80 billion. (15.2 per cent of total Scottish manufactured exports).

Table 4: Destination of Scottish Exports in 1996

| Value (£ million, current prices) | Per cent of total | Nominal percentage growth in 1996 | Contribution to overall growth: per cent
European Union | 10,756 | 58.4 | 2.9 | 27.5
North America | 2,318 | 12.6 | 36.8 | 56.8
Other Asia Pacific | 1,556 | 8.4 | -14.2 | -23.5
EFTA | 1,072 | 5.8 | 16.4 | 13.7
Japan | 812 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.4
Middle East | 513 | 2.8 | 23.3 | 8.8
Latin America | 510 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 2.0
Eastern Europe | 396 | 2.2 | 53.5 | 12.6
Africa | 311 | 1.7 | -0.6 | -0.2
Australasia | 171 | 0.9 | -11.9 | -2.1

Source: Scottish Council Development and Industry

Exports to the USA rose by 38.3 per cent in 1996 to £2.22 billion. The USA was responsible for nearly 50 per cent of the increase in total Scottish exports and overtook Germany as the second largest market. There was a strong upturn in sales across the Office Machinery, Radio/TV/Communication Equipment, Coke/Petroleum and Chemicals sectors; the strength of the US economy a causal factor. North America displaced Other Asia Pacific as Scotland's second largest trading area.

Exports to Japan continued to increase and remained the 7th largest country market for Scottish goods. Total exports to the Other Asia Pacific countries fell by 14.2 per cent in 1996, compared with strong growth of 30.9 per cent in 1995. However, this was almost entirely due to a large drop in exports to Malaysia; there were significant rises in exports to Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan. Elsewhere, exports to most other regions showed significant growth with sales to Eastern Europe up 53.5 per cent and exports to the Middle East up 23.3 per cent. Growth in sales were also recorded to the EFTA countries, while exports to Latin America continued to grow modestly. There was a marginal decline in sales to Africa following last year's significant increase, while exports to Australasia continued to decline.

The Sterling Exchange Rate and Exports

Inevitably, the strength of sterling has put pressure on Scottish exports. As one would expect, the exposure to exchange rate movements varies by sector in Scotland. This is illustrated in Table 5 which shows, at the broad sectoral level, the proportion of total domestic (i.e. Scottish) output dependent on exports outwith the UK (i.e. to the rest of the world, ROW) and the import content of that output from the same source. The table also shows the corresponding proportions for Scotland's trade with the rest of the UK (RUK).

Table 5: The External Orientation of Scottish Industry, 1994

Industry | Proportion of domestic output dependent on : | Components of gross domestic output
Exports to RUK | Exports to ROW | Imports from RUK | Imports from ROW
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing | 19.7 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 1.4
Mining and Quarrying | 41.0 | 29.1 | 18.9 | 6.8
Energy and Water Supply | 6.4 | 1.0 | 7.8 | 7.7
Manufacturing | 26.7 | 41.8 | 18.8 | 18.2
Construction | 6.0 | 0.0 | 17.7 | 3.9
Transport and Communication | 20.0 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 2.5
Distribution and Catering | 14.1 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 1.0
Financial and Business Services | 12.3 | 5.8 | 10.8 | 1.9
Other Services | 4.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 1.2
Whole Economy | 16.5 | 16.3 | 12.0 | 7.3

Source: The Scottish Office

The manufacturing sector is clearly the most sensitive to the effects of exchange rate changes: over 40 per cent of output is exported to ROW and almost 20 per cent of inputs are imported from ROW. Within the sector (though not shown in the table), 2 industries - drink and electrical and instrument engineering - export more than two thirds of their output to ROW, while chemicals and electrical and instrument engineering also import more than a third of inputs. By contrast, the output of the service sector is much more dependent on the home market, relying less on exports to generate value added. The gross output of the service sector also embodies a lower import content.

For manufacturing, available evidence from the SCDI for 1997 suggests that the strength of sterling is causing difficulties in terms of reduced margins and some job losses. However, as described above, it appears that it has not yet impacted upon the level of export sales, only profitability.

Business survey evidence in Scotland does point to an adverse impact on exports resulting from sterling's strength but results are far from conclusive. The Scottish Chambers' Business Survey reported a decline in export orders and sales in 1997 Q4, as in Q3 and results from Scottish Engineering also revealed that export orders declined for the third successive quarter, falling in all sectors of the industry. By contrast, the CBI Industrial Trends Survey reported a return to growth in export orders and deliveries also increased significantly in the fourth quarter. However, optimism regarding export prospects fell markedly and, as one might expect, respondents continued to believe that prices would be the most important constraint on export orders over the coming months.

One particular area in which the exchange rate may have been expected to affect activity levels is travel and tourism both to and from overseas. International Passenger Survey (IPS) evidence for the 12 months to November 1997 shows that the number of visitors to the UK rose by 3 per cent, compared with the year to November 1996. The number of visits from North America increased by 14 per cent, while the number of visits from Western Europe was broadly static. Visits from Other Areas rose by 4 per cent. The total number of UK residents' visits abroad during the 12 months ending November 1997 rose by 11 per cent compared with a year earlier. Visits to Western Europe increased by 12 per cent, while visits to North America and Other Areas increased by 2 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. Overseas earnings rose by 2 per cent in current prices in the year to November and expenditure by UK residents rose by 6 per cent. This resulted in an increase in the deficit on the travel account of the balance of payments from £3.8 billion to £4.6 billion over the period.

The change in the composition of the tourism market appears to be consistent with the larger rise in sterling against the main European currencies over the last 18 months and has implications for Scotland. North America, Germany and France all account for higher proportions of overseas visits to Scotland than to the UK as a whole. However, a complicating factor is that US and French visitors tend to have a high propensity for travelling as part of a package holiday, paid for in advance with prices based on an exchange rate determined possibly months before the holiday is taken. Consequently, the impact of changes in exchange rates on visits from US and French residents may be delayed. By contrast, the principal types of Dutch and German holidaymakers to Scotland tend to travel independently and to holiday on an ad hoc basis at relatively short notice. The impact of the strength of sterling on these groups is likely to have been demonstrated relatively quickly.

Some IPS data for Scotland are available to the third quarter of 1997. The total number of overnight visits from overseas tourists was broadly unchanged in the first 3 quarters of the year, compared with the same period in 1996. However, the total from Western Europe fell by 6 per cent and overnight visits from North America were broadly unchanged. By contrast, visits from Other Areas rose by 12 per cent. Evidence for Scotland from the United Kingdom Tourism Survey, covering the first 3 quarters of 1997, reported a 3 per cent fall in the number of tourist trips to Scotland by UK residents compared with the same period in 1996. This compares with growth rates of around 15 per cent in each of the previous 2 years. The value of these trips increased by 7 per cent in current prices, broadly equal to growth in the UK over the same period but lower than growth in 1995 and 1996.

Labour Market

Unemployment

There are 2 main sources of unemployment data. An estimate of unemployment under the International Labour Office definition - ILO unemployment - is provided by the Labour Force Survey (LFS), a quarterly sample survey of households. The second measure of unemployment - the claimant count - is based on records of those claiming Jobseeker's Allowance and National Insurance Credits at Employment Service Offices. The Office for National Statistics announced on 3 February that (from April) its assessment of the labour market would give more weight than previously to the LFS, which is conducted according to internationally agreed definitions drawn up by the ILO.

ILO unemployment (not seasonally adjusted) in Scotland fell by 32,000 in the year to Autumn (September to November) 1997 to 185,000. The rate of unemployment fell by 1.4 percentage points to 7.4 per cent of the workforce. ILO unemployment in the UK fell by 379,000 in the year to Autumn 1997 to 1,919,000 or 6.6 per cent, 0.8 percentage points below the Scottish rate. Unemployment fell in every Government Office Region (GOR) of the UK. Four GORs - Merseyside, North East, London and Northern Ireland - have higher ILO unemployment rates than Scotland.

Claimant count unemployment (seasonally adjusted) in Scotland fell throughout 1997 but rose by 1,200 in January 1998 to 141,100, the first rise since April 1996. The rate of unemployment rose by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8 per cent of the workforce, 0.8 percentage points above the UK rate. Of the UK GORs, Merseyside, North East, and Northern Ireland have higher unemployment rates than Scotland, while London has the same rate.

The claimant count measure of unemployment in Scotland remains significantly lower than the ILO measure. The difference between the ILO measure and the claimant count measure12 in Autumn 1997 was 42,000, a rise of 7,000 on Autumn 1996.

In the July 1997 Budget, the Government set out a New Deal to help young people, the long term unemployed, lone parents and the disabled move from Welfare to Work. The New Deal for young claimants (aged 18-24) who have been unemployed for 6 months or more was launched in 12 "pathfinder" areas of the UK (including Tayside) in January and the programme will be launched nationally from April. The New Deal for long term unemployed adults (those aged 25 and over who have been unemployed for more than 2 years) will be launched in June.13

Table 6 summarises the eligibility for the New Deal for these two groups in January 1998. It can be seen that, in Scotland there were 11,300 youth unemployed of over 6 months duration and 17,100 aged 25 and over who had been unemployed for 2 years or more in January 1998 (7.4 per cent and 11.3 per cent of total claimant unemployed, respectively). The total number in these 2 groups has fallen significantly over the last year - by 17,800 (38.5 per cent).

Table 6: Claiment Count Unemployment for New Deal Target Groups

| Youth (18-24) Unemployment, over 6 months duration | Adult (25+) Unemployment, over 2 years duration
January 1997 | January 1998 | Percentage change | January 1997 | January 1998 | Percentage change
Scotland | 18,100 | 11,300 | -37.7 | 28,100 | 17,100 | -39.1
Per cent of claimant count | 9.8 | 7.4 | .. | 15.2 | 11.3 | ..
UK | 198,300 | 118,400 | -40.3 | 357,000 | 216,300 | -39.4
Scotland as a percentage of the UK | 9.1 | 9.5 | .. | 7.9 | 7.9 | ..

Source: Office for National Statistics

Note: 1. Percentages calculated with reference to unrounded figures.

Employment

There are two main official sources of quarterly employment data: the Workforce in Employment series, which is a survey of employers, and the Labour Force Survey.

An increase of 43,000 in total employment (not seasonally adjusted) in Scotland was recorded by the LFS over the year to Autumn 1997 to reach a new (Autumn) peak of 2,305,000. This was due to increases of 24,000 in the number of employees, 14,000 in the number of self-employed and 5,000 in the number of people either on government supported training and employment programmes or who were unpaid family workers. Given the fall of 32,000 in the level of ILO unemployment, the number of people classed as economically active increased by 10,000 in the year to Autumn 1997. Increases in total employment were evident in most UK GORs, falling only in the North East, Merseyside and Wales. In the UK as a whole, total employment increased by 456,000.

An increase of 23,000 in the civilian workforce (not seasonally adjusted) was recorded by the Workforce in Employment series over the year to September 1997 to reach a new peak of 2,277,000, (7,000 higher than the 1991 peak and 202,000 above the trough in 1983). This comprised increases of 19,000 in the number of self-employed and 6,000 in the number of employees (comprising increases across the service sector (14,000) and decreases in manufacturing (5,000) and other sectors (3,000)) over the year, partly offset by a fall of 2,000 in the number on work-related government training programmes. Increases in the civilian workforce were evident in all GB regions, except East Anglia and Yorkshire and Humberside. In Great Britain as a whole, the civilian workforce increased by 349,000.

The growth in the number of employees has been due to the increase in part-time employment.14 In the year to September 1997, part-time employment rose by 32,000 (17,000 males and 15,000 females), offset by a fall of 26,000 in full-time employment (24,000 males and 2,000 females). This is a continuation of a trend over the past few years in which part-time employment has increased - in each year since 1992 (data are available from 1991) - to a level 104,000 higher (46,000 males and 58,000 females) in 1997 than 5 years earlier. By contrast, full-time employment has fallen consistently and in September 1997 was 90,000 lower than 1992 levels (86,000 males and 4,000 females).

7Published in Economic Trends, February 1998.
8GDP estimates of the Scottish regions measure the value of goods and services produced in an area; they do not measure the income of the residents in an area, as is the case for Government Office Regions/countries of the UK. There is a wide variation between areas in terms of size and population; in order to compare the economic performance of areas it is necessary to use an indicator such as GDP per head of population. Resident population is used as the denominator. The implication of using this in conjunction with the workplace-based GDP figures is that the productivity of urban areas into which workers commute will tend to be overstated by this indicator, while that of surrounding areas in which they live will be understated.
9Input -Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland, 1994, The Stationery Office.
10It should be noted that the data presented by the SCDI for Scottish manufactured exports refer to gross output. They do not measure the level of (or changes in) the value-added component of Scottish manufactured exports (that is, the wages and profits accruing to domestic suppliers of labour and capital).
11Electronics is classified by the SCDI as consisting of 4 industry groupings: Office Machinery, Electrical Machinery and Apparatus nec, Radio/TV/Communication Equipment and Apparatus and Medical, Precision and Optical Instruments, Watches and Clocks.
12Average of September to November levels (not seasonally adjusted).
13The New Deal for young people provides a period of advice and guidance -'the Gateway' - to find unsubsidised jobs. Thereafter, four options will be available: a subsidised job with an employer; a place on an Environment Task Force; a job in the voluntary sector; or full-time education or training. The first 3 options involve at least one day a week training and options 2 and 3 include top-ups to existing benefits. Long term unemployed adults under the New Deal will be able to benefit from two options: a subsidised job with an employer; or opportunities to study for up to 12 months in full-time employment-related courses designed to reach an accredited qualification.
14Part-time employment is defined here as working less than 30 hours per week.